Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 3.893315 4.240032 4.623017 5.081324 5.620148 6.240384 7.018697
2025-01-05 3.359006 3.796432 4.311856 4.976231 5.829238 6.917361 8.464866
2025-01-12 3.021169 3.495164 4.077360 4.866341 5.944890 7.432554 9.779338
2025-01-19 2.747459 3.229081 3.837769 4.692492 5.916259 7.709737 10.793558
2025-01-26 2.629014 3.141402 3.808890 4.783239 6.253193 8.567906 13.008649
2025-02-02 2.565937 3.115792 3.853819 4.974398 6.760850 9.808031 16.484579
2025-02-09 2.487691 3.060616 3.848778 5.086015 7.156293 10.958948 20.497842
2025-02-16 2.370800 2.942335 3.741692 5.025480 7.248290 11.560347 23.620594
2025-02-23 2.273395 2.844132 3.654682 4.984700 7.364552 12.240504 27.584117
2025-03-02 2.183762 2.750995 3.567379 4.932643 7.449245 12.876309 32.134769
2025-03-09 2.103581 2.666602 3.486783 4.882544 7.528074 13.524127 37.691920
2025-03-16 2.039954 2.602616 3.432591 4.871073 7.680010 14.407201 46.099482
2025-03-23 1.998320 2.570005 3.426629 4.946272 8.031260 15.996751 63.952153
2025-03-30 1.922862 2.483221 3.329755 4.850022 8.001420 16.488394 76.366919
2025-04-06 1.851367 2.399236 3.232623 4.744982 7.936998 16.860522 90.555964
2025-04-13 1.772246 2.300630 3.107104 4.578198 7.711177 16.637767 97.099747
2025-04-20 1.749006 2.286105 3.117163 4.665290 8.087356 18.664878 168.572678
2025-04-27 1.744902 2.300436 3.174966 4.848603 8.734723 22.214167 586.349748
2025-05-04 1.726611 2.291568 3.193003 4.955550 9.216815 25.585445 272713.902859
2025-05-11 1.681323 2.238204 3.132214 4.897556 9.247179 26.819999 NaN
2025-05-18 1.641785 2.192557 3.082521 4.858477 9.324948 28.423406 NaN
2025-05-25 1.602701 2.146282 3.029594 4.808580 9.364732 29.891272 NaN
2025-06-01 1.565984 2.102607 2.979294 4.760544 9.403450 31.446882 NaN